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MBS Road Signs 6-17-24

Week of June 10, 2024 in Review

The Fed once again held rates steady, while tamer than expected consumer and wholesale inflation for May was a welcome sign. Unemployment claims also saw a big move higher. Here are last week’s highlights: 

  • Fed Holds Rates Steady, Indicates One Cut in 2024
  • Consumer Inflation Takes Important Steps Lower
  • Friendly Wholesale Inflation Numbers
  • Initial Jobless Claims Hit 10-Month High
  • Latest on Small Business Optimism

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Indicates One Cut in 2024

After eleven rate hikes since March 2022, the Fed once again left their benchmark Federal Funds Rate unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. This decision was unanimous and marks the seventh straight meeting they held rates steady.

The Fed Funds Rate is the interest rate for overnight borrowing for banks and it is not the same as mortgage rates. The Fed has been aggressively hiking the Fed Funds Rate throughout this cycle to try to slow the economy and curb the runaway inflation that became rampant over the last few years.

What’s the bottom line? While inflation has cooled considerably after peaking in 2022, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed does not expect to cut rates until members are confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2% as measured by annual Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (which is at 2.8% as of April).

The Fed’s “dot plot” of member forecasts signaled that just one rate cut is expected before the end of the year, down from three cuts forecasted in March, though these estimates can change quickly based on upcoming data. The Fed did acknowledge that they have seen “modest further progress” toward their 2% goal, reflecting some recent friendly inflation readings as noted below.

Consumer Inflation Takes Important Steps Lower

May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed cooler than expected inflation, with the headline reading flat for the month while the annual reading declined from 3.4% to 3.3%. The Core measure, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% and the annual reading declined from 3.6% to 3.4%.

All these measures were softer than estimates, as moderating motor vehicle insurance costs were a key reason for the friendly Core number.

What’s the bottom line? May’s data followed better than expected numbers in April. This is a welcome sign that inflationary pressures may continue to ease as we move further into the year, especially after readings in the first quarter of this year were unexpectedly high.

Friendly Wholesale Inflation Numbers

The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation on the wholesale level, was also below estimates last month. Headline PPI fell 0.2% in May, with the annual reading also moving lower from 2.3% to 2.2%. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was flat in May and the year-over-year reading fell from 2.4% to 2.3%.

What’s the bottom line? The favorable CPI and PPI reports brought a double dose of positive inflation news last week. Plus, some of the PPI components are factored into another important consumer inflation measure called Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which is the Fed’s favored measure, and this could lead to a friendly PCE report when that data is released on June 28.

Initial Jobless Claims Hit 10-Month High

Initial Jobless Claims rose by 13,000 in the latest week, with 242,000 people filing new unemployment claims. This was much higher than expectations of 225,000. There were also 1.82 million people still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim, as Continuing Claims jumped by 30,000. 

What’s the bottom line? Initial Jobless Claims have now risen for three straight weeks, with the latest reading the highest number of first-time filers since last August. Continuing Claims are also still trending near some of the hottest levels we’ve seen in recent years, suggesting that the pace of hiring has slowed.

The Fed will be closely watching for signs of a sustained rise in unemployment as they weigh monetary policy and the timing for rate cuts, given their dual mandate and price stability and maximum employment.

Latest on Small Business Optimism

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index rose to 90.5 in May. While this is the highest reading of the year, it remains well below the historical average of 98.

What’s the bottom line? NFIB’s Chief Economist, Bill Dunkelberg, explained that “for 29 consecutive months, small business owners have expressed historically low optimism and their views about future business conditions are at the worst levels seen in 50 years.”

Given that 22% of owners reported that inflation was the single most important problem in operating their business, the cooler than expected inflation readings for May were a positive development.

Hot Property for June 2024

Check out this Hot Property in Tampa, FL!

Pride of ownership abounds in this Mid-Century Gem! Located in Lake Magdalene, this oversized corner lot features mature landscaping, Pool, circular driveway and no deed restrictions so park your boat or jetski and enjoy the DEEDED ACCESS TO LAKE MAGDALENE! On the inside is a tastefully renovated and well maintained 3 bed 2 bath home with multiple flex spaces and oversized covered patio. Double sided fireplace adds a unique eye catching feature. Brand new Septic Tank, lift station and drain field were installed as part of the current owners purchase in 2017. Well water with new whole home reverse osmosis water filtration/softener system. Oversized garage allows for room to park 2 cars while still having plenty of room for storage or workshop area.

Are you interested in this property? If so, call or email to receive a full property report filled with helpful information.

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WE HELP THE BEST COMPANIES: Toyota, Microsoft, Costco, hP, Coca Cola, Cisco, The Home Depot, Walt Disney, FedEx, Sprint, Anthem and many more!


Another Hot Property for May 2024

Check out this Hot Property in Tampa, FL!

Welcome to your home in the sought-after golf course community of Hunters Green, nestled in the heart of New Tampa. This charming, 4-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom residence on a quiet, tree-lined street has been updated to the point of truly being one of a kind, offering the perfect blend of elegance, comfort and character. Step inside and discover an open and airy entry and living area bathed in natural light. The renovated floor plan seamlessly connects the family room to the kitchen and dining area, creating an inviting space for family gatherings and socializing. The centerpiece of its many upgrades and the heart of this home is the gourmet kitchen, which boasts ample cabinets, a spacious center island, desk/workstation, elegant quartz countertops, glass tile backsplash, reverse osmosis water system, stainless steel double oven and induction cooktop. This is the perfect place to perfect your favorite recipe. Unwind in the primary suite, complete with dual walk-in closets and en suite bathroom with oversized tub and separate shower, providing a private sanctuary for relaxation. Each additional bedroom offers versatility and comfort. Step outside to your own private paradise, where a screened-in lanai and pool/spa with large, covered patio await. This serene oasis is perfect for entertaining guests or enjoying tranquil moments of relaxation at the end of a long day. Whether you’re enjoying a morning cup of coffee or hosting a barbecue, this outdoor space is sure to become your favorite spot to relax and entertain. The home’s exterior, freshly painted two years ago, radiates contemporary charm, complemented by the practical durability of a recently updated AC unit (2020) and roof (2022)ensuring both comfort and style. Additional modern conveniences and updates include a dedicated 240V outlet for EV charging, low voltage Ethernet wiring, window and door replacement including double pane windows and sliders, fresh attic insulation and full electrical panel replacement. Residents of Hunter’s Green enjoy peace of mind with 24/7 manned security gates and experience the ultimate Florida lifestyle with access to an array of amenities, including playgrounds, lighted tennis, pickleball, basketball, volleyball, soccer and baseball facilities, jogging trail with a 15-station exercise circuit, an off-leash dog park, designated bike lanes and scenic walking trails. All of this is surrounded by 43 lakes on 65 acres of protected wetlands and the exclusive Hunter’s Green Golf and Country Club with its Tom Fazio designed 18-hole golf course. Conveniently located near top-rated schools, shopping, dining, and major highways, this home will provide you with quintessential Florida living in one of Tampa Bay’s most beautiful communities. Don’t miss your chance to call this property home schedule your showing today!

Are you interested in this property? If so, call or email to receive a full property report filled with helpful information.

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WE HELP THE BEST COMPANIES: Toyota, Microsoft, Costco, hP, Coca Cola, Cisco, The Home Depot, Walt Disney, FedEx, Sprint, Anthem and many more!


Hot Properties for May 2024

Check out this Hot Property in Meridian, ID!

Welcome to prestigious Paramount subdivision! This stunning home features the highly sought-after Cambridge floorplan by Brighton Homes. Situated on a spacious corner lot, this residence boasts privacy and ample outdoor space, including a private backyard with a covered patio. Step inside to discover a wealth of luxurious upgrades, including granite countertops, hardwood floors, ample storage and surround sound speakers, creating an ambiance of elegance throughout. The split floorplan ensures privacy, with the master suite secluded from the secondary bedrooms. A den/office and formal dining room provide versatility for various lifestyle needs. With close proximity to shopping, restaurants, parks, walking paths, and bike paths. The large 3 car garage offers plenty of space for parking and storage. Don’t miss out on this amazing opportunity!

Are you interested in this property? If so, call or email to receive a full property report filled with helpful information.

Moving Out of State?

WE HELP THE BEST COMPANIES: Toyota, Microsoft, Costco, hP, Coca Cola, Cisco, The Home Depot, Walt Disney, FedEx, Sprint, Anthem and many more!


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